As on March 31, 2022, India’s overseas trade reserves at $ 607.3 billion is equal to 12 months of merchandise imports in 2021-22 or 98.8 per cent of excellent exterior debt at end-December 2021, based on the most recent RBI knowledge. Precisely a yr in the past in March 2021 reserves have been satisfactory to fund 17.4 months’ imports.
Considerably, capital flows via varied channels slowed or reversed throughout the yr. Internet FDI flows fell to $ 11.0 billion throughout October-January 2022 from $ 18.9 billion a yr in the past on the again of upper outward FDI flows and repatriations by FDI corporations. Overseas portfolio buyers, web consumers in Q2’2021-22, turned web sellers from Q3 in view of the resurgence of COVID-19 infections, issues over the tempo of US Fed’s financial coverage normalisation, correction within the fairness market and geopolitical tensions. Whereas ECB flows have been flat, NRI deposits moderated.
Foreign exchange reserves have contracted by 5 per cent from the height of $642 billion in October to $607 billion in March finish. On the similar time, merchandise imports reached an all-time excessive of $ 60.3 billion in December 2021 and remained above $ 50 billion for the seventh consecutive month in March 2022, therefore cauring import cover of reserves to shrink.
However economists should not alarmed and are satisfied about RBI’s means to handle the reserves. Even on the present ranges import cowl remains to be greater than throughout the international monetary disaster when it had slipped to lower than 10 months’ imports. “The RBI has been managing its overseas reserves prudently” stated Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays Capital. ” As financial exercise normalises, whereas visually it seems that import cowl is falling, we nonetheless see it being fairly excessive and comfy”
Going forward, forex reserves pile up can be essential as surge in international commodity and crude demand would trigger a surge in demand for dollars.
