Economists at TD Securities search for additional sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 degree within the second quarter of the yr.
The nightmare after Christmas
“We expect that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach effectively over 20 in Q2. Nevertheless, that is after we anticipate the CBRT to start out tightening, which ought to assist carry the pair right down to round 19 by end-Q2.”
“The lira can proceed appreciating in a gradual method all through the remainder of 2022 assuming no additional coverage missteps.”
“From 2023 onwards, nonetheless, coverage errors are but once more prone to set TRY on a weakening trajectory.”